U.S. Department of Energy Office of Biological and Environmental Research

BER Research Highlights

Climate Change and Storm-Induced Coastal Energy System Vulnerabilities
Published: March 21, 2011
Posted: April 06, 2011

Researchers from Johns Hopkins University and Texas A&M have applied advanced statistical methods for analysis of hurricane-induced power outages. The team compared the predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage durations caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and then validated their models against two other hurricanes. Their results reveal that: 1) the location and duration of hurricane power outages can be accurately predicted, 2) seasonal hurricane count forecasts can be substantially improved by using more complete climate data and flexible statistical methods, and 3) climate change induced changes in hurricane hazards will likely lead to increased numbers and durations of outages. Accurate prediction of power outages is a critical capability for utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently; design, site, and harden critical energy- and electricity-dependent infrastructure; and reduce outage frequencies and durations. The next step is to couple the appropriate methods with downscaled climate models to deliver final project methodological insights on the impacts of climate change on coastal energy system vulnerabilities.

Reference: Nateghi, R., S. D. Guikema, and S. M. Quiring. 2011. “Comparison and Validation of Statistical Methods for Predicting Power Outage Durations in the Event of Hurricanes,” Risk Analysis, 31(12), 1897–1906. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01618.x. (Reference link)

Contact: Bob Vallario, SC 23.1, (301) 903-5758
Topic Areas:

  • Research Area: Multisector Dynamics (formerly Integrated Assessment)

Division: SC-23.1 Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, BER


BER supports basic research and scientific user facilities to advance DOE missions in energy and environment. More about BER

Recent Highlights

Aug 24, 2019
New Approach for Studying How Microbes Influence Their Environment
A diverse group of scientists suggests a common framework and targeting of known microbial processes [more...]

Aug 08, 2019
Nutrient-Hungry Peatland Microbes Reduce Carbon Loss Under Warmer Conditions
Enzyme production in peatlands reduces carbon lost to respiration under future high temperatures. [more...]

Aug 05, 2019
Amazon Forest Response to CO2 Fertilization Dependent on Plant Phosphorus Acquisition
AmazonFACE Model Intercomparison. The Science Plant growth is dependent on the availabi [more...]

Jul 29, 2019
A Slippery Slope: Soil Carbon Destabilization
Carbon gain or loss depends on the balance between competing biological, chemical, and physical reac [more...]

Jul 15, 2019
Field Evaluation of Gas Analyzers for Measuring Ecosystem Fluxes
How gas analyzer type and correction method impact measured fluxes. The Science A side- [more...]

List all highlights (possible long download time)