U.S. Department of Energy Office of Biological and Environmental Research

BER Research Highlights

Impacts of Ozone Hole Recovery and Greenhouse Gases on Future Climate
Published: January 31, 2011
Posted: February 09, 2011

Future climate change in the southern hemisphere will likely be dominated by two competing effects: the recovery of the ozone hole over Antarctica and increasing greenhouse gases. Both of these influence the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a southern hemisphere wide pattern of climate variability that influences aspects of climate from temperature and precipitation to oceanic circulation and Southern Ocean carbon uptake. However, different models give different answers as to whether greenhouse gases or ozone will have a greater impact on SAM trends over the coming decades. New research led by DOE scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) examines the future response of the SAM in two NCAR models. Both models suggest that recent positive summertime trends in SAM will reverse sign over the coming decades as the ozone hole recovers. Their results also suggest that the response to greenhouse warming will play a large role in modifying the strength of the response. Understanding the mechanisms behind the various model results is an important step towards narrowing uncertainty in future climate projections.

Reference: Arblaster, J.M., G.A. Meehl, and D.J. Karoly. 2011. “Future Climate Change in the Southern Hemisphere: Competing Effects of Ozone and Greenhouse Gases,” Geophysical Research Letters 38, L02701, doi:10.1029/2010GL045384.

Contact: Renu Joseph, SC-23.1, (301) 903-9237, Dorothy Koch, SC-23.1, (301) 903-0105
Topic Areas:

  • Research Area: Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling

Division: SC-23.1 Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, BER


BER supports basic research and scientific user facilities to advance DOE missions in energy and environment. More about BER

Recent Highlights

May 10, 2019
Quantifying Decision Uncertainty in Water Management via a Coupled Agent-Based Model
Considering risk perception can improve the representation of human decision-making processes in age [more...]

May 09, 2019
Projecting Global Urban Area Growth Through 2100 Based on Historical Time Series Data and Future Scenarios
Study provides country-specific urban area growth models and the first dataset on country-level urba [more...]

May 05, 2019
Calibrating Building Energy Demand Models to Refine Long-Term Energy Planning
A new, flexible calibration approach improved model accuracy in capturing year-to-year changes in bu [more...]

May 03, 2019
Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis of Demeter for Better Downscaling of Global Land Use and Land Cover Projections
Researchers improved the Demeter model’s performance by calibrating key parameters and establi [more...]

Apr 22, 2019
Representation of U.S. Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles
Representation of warm temperature events varies considerably among global climate models, which has [more...]

List all highlights (possible long download time)