U.S. Department of Energy Office of Biological and Environmental Research

BER Research Highlights


Improved Estimation of Prospective Climate Change
Published: October 18, 2010
Posted: November 03, 2010

In a recent study co-authored by a DOE-funded scientist from LLNL, future climate predictions are made based on the combined use of many climate models weighted according to their observational predictive skill. This approach provides greater reliability and statistically significant predictions than is possible using a single climate model. The authors considered two future greenhouse scenarios: one in which greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized around the year 2050 and another in which greenhouse gases continue to increase. Seventeen coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations were used, weighted according to their ability to predict observations of 20th century climate. For both scenarios, statistically significant temperature increases occur globally. Precipitation changes were more variable with statistically significant changes only in some regions and only for the scenario in which greenhouse gases continued to increase. These new predictive methods should lead to improvement of model consensus on climate change.

Reference: Q. Duan and T.J. Phillips. 2010. "Bayesian estimation of local signal and noise in multimodel simulations of climate change," Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115, D18123, doi:10.1029/2009JD013654.

Contact: Dorothy Koch, SC-23.1, (301) 903-0105, Renu Joseph, SC-23.1, (301) 903-9237
Topic Areas:

  • Research Area: Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling

Division: SC-23.1 Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, BER

 

BER supports basic research and scientific user facilities to advance DOE missions in energy and environment. More about BER

Recent Highlights

Aug 24, 2019
New Approach for Studying How Microbes Influence Their Environment
A diverse group of scientists suggests a common framework and targeting of known microbial processes [more...]

Aug 08, 2019
Nutrient-Hungry Peatland Microbes Reduce Carbon Loss Under Warmer Conditions
Enzyme production in peatlands reduces carbon lost to respiration under future high temperatures. [more...]

Aug 05, 2019
Amazon Forest Response to CO2 Fertilization Dependent on Plant Phosphorus Acquisition
AmazonFACE Model Intercomparison. The Science Plant growth is dependent on the availabi [more...]

Jul 29, 2019
A Slippery Slope: Soil Carbon Destabilization
Carbon gain or loss depends on the balance between competing biological, chemical, and physical reac [more...]

Jul 15, 2019
Field Evaluation of Gas Analyzers for Measuring Ecosystem Fluxes
How gas analyzer type and correction method impact measured fluxes. The Science A side- [more...]

List all highlights (possible long download time)