In a recent study co-authored by a DOE-funded scientist from LLNL, future climate predictions are made based on the combined use of many climate models weighted according to their observational predictive skill. This approach provides greater reliability and statistically significant predictions than is possible using a single climate model. The authors considered two future greenhouse scenarios: one in which greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized around the year 2050 and another in which greenhouse gases continue to increase. Seventeen coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations were used, weighted according to their ability to predict observations of 20th century climate. For both scenarios, statistically significant temperature increases occur globally. Precipitation changes were more variable with statistically significant changes only in some regions and only for the scenario in which greenhouse gases continued to increase. These new predictive methods should lead to improvement of model consensus on climate change.
Reference: Q. Duan and T.J. Phillips. 2010. "Bayesian estimation of local signal and noise in multimodel simulations of climate change," Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115, D18123, doi:10.1029/2009JD013654.
Contact: Dorothy Koch, SC-23.1, (301) 903-0105, Renu Joseph, SC-23.1, (301) 903-9237
SC-33.1 Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, BER
BER supports basic research and scientific user facilities to advance DOE missions in energy and environment. More about BER
Mar 23, 2021
Molecular Connections from Plants to Fungi to Ants
Lipids transfer energy and serve as an inter-kingdom communication tool in leaf-cutter ants&rsqu [more...]
Mar 19, 2021
Microbes Use Ancient Metabolism to Cycle Phosphorus
Microbial cycling of phosphorus through reduction-oxidation reactions is older and more widespre [more...]
Feb 22, 2021
Warming Soil Means Stronger Microbe Networks
Soil warming leads to more complex, larger, and more connected networks of microbes in those soi [more...]
Jan 27, 2021
Labeling the Thale Cress Metabolites
New data pipeline identifies metabolites following heavy isotope labeling.
Aug 31, 2020
Novel Bacterial Clade Reveals Origin of Form I Rubisco
List all highlights (possible long download time)