U.S. Department of Energy Office of Biological and Environmental Research

BER Research Highlights


Predicting Climate at the Decadal Scale: Can it be Done Skillfully?
Published: September 28, 2009
Posted: October 05, 2009

The decadal time scale has been identified by users of climate information as being important to regional infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. This article, led by DOE sponsored investigator Gerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, discusses several methods that have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described and has been incorporated into coordinated experiments, some of which will be assessed for the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) These experiments are likely to guide work in this emerging field over the next five years.

Reference: Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, J. Murphy, R. J. Stouffer, J. Boer, G. Danabasoglu, K. Dixon, M. A. Giorgetta, A. M. Greene, E. Hawkins, G. Hegerl, D. Karoly, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, A. Navarra, R. Pulwarty, D. Smith, D. Stammer, and T. Stockdale. 2009. "Decadal Prediction: Can It Be Skillful?" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90(10), 1467–85. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1. (Reference link)

Contact: Anjuli Bamzai, SC-23.1, (301) 903-0294; Renu Joseph, SC-23.1, 301-903-9237
Topic Areas:

  • Research Area: Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling

Division: SC-23.1 Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, BER

 

BER supports basic research and scientific user facilities to advance DOE missions in energy and environment. More about BER

Recent Highlights

May 10, 2019
Quantifying Decision Uncertainty in Water Management via a Coupled Agent-Based Model
Considering risk perception can improve the representation of human decision-making processes in age [more...]

May 09, 2019
Projecting Global Urban Area Growth Through 2100 Based on Historical Time Series Data and Future Scenarios
Study provides country-specific urban area growth models and the first dataset on country-level urba [more...]

May 05, 2019
Calibrating Building Energy Demand Models to Refine Long-Term Energy Planning
A new, flexible calibration approach improved model accuracy in capturing year-to-year changes in bu [more...]

May 03, 2019
Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis of Demeter for Better Downscaling of Global Land Use and Land Cover Projections
Researchers improved the Demeter model’s performance by calibrating key parameters and establi [more...]

Apr 22, 2019
Representation of U.S. Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles
Representation of warm temperature events varies considerably among global climate models, which has [more...]

List all highlights (possible long download time)