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Predicting Climate at the Decadal Scale: Can it be Done Skillfully?
Published: September 28, 2009
Posted: October 05, 2009

The decadal time scale has been identified by users of climate information as being important to regional infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. This article, led by DOE sponsored investigator Gerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, discusses several methods that have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described and has been incorporated into coordinated experiments, some of which will be assessed for the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) These experiments are likely to guide work in this emerging field over the next five years.

Reference: Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, J. Murphy, R. J. Stouffer, J. Boer, G. Danabasoglu, K. Dixon, M. A. Giorgetta, A. M. Greene, E. Hawkins, G. Hegerl, D. Karoly, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, A. Navarra, R. Pulwarty, D. Smith, D. Stammer, and T. Stockdale. 2009. "Decadal Prediction: Can It Be Skillful?" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90(10), 1467–85. DOI: (Reference link)

Contact: Anjuli Bamzai, SC-23.1, (301) 903-0294; Renu Joseph, SC-23.1, 301-903-9237
Topic Areas:

  • Research Area: Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling

Division: SC-33.1 Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, BER


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