DOE-funded research conducted at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) indicates a 90% probability range of global surface warming of 3.5 ° C to 7.4°C with a median of 5.2°C. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various climate outcomes based on uncertainty in the physical/biological response of the climate system but the MIT model is the only one that includes detailed multi-nation treatment of uncertainty in projections of human emissions, including population, economic growth and technological change. The MIT study is one of the most comprehensive Integrated Assessment modeling efforts carried out on the potential for global warming in the absence of emissions mitigation. Importantly, it builds on new methods in uncertainty analysis centered on MITs Integrated Global Systems Model.
Reference: A. Sokolov, P. Stone, C. Forest, R. Prinn, M. Sarofim, M. Webster, S. Paltsev, C. Schlosser, D. Kicklighter, S. Dutkiewicz, J. Reilly, C. Wang, B. Felzer, J. Melillo, and H. Jacoby. Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters. Journal of Climate. Preliminary manuscript approved for Publication. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1.
Contact: Bob Vallario, SC 23.1 , (301) 903-5758
SC-33.1 Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, BER
BER supports basic research and scientific user facilities to advance DOE missions in energy and environment. More about BER
Mar 23, 2021
Molecular Connections from Plants to Fungi to Ants
Lipids transfer energy and serve as an inter-kingdom communication tool in leaf-cutter ants&rsqu [more...]
Mar 19, 2021
Microbes Use Ancient Metabolism to Cycle Phosphorus
Microbial cycling of phosphorus through reduction-oxidation reactions is older and more widespre [more...]
Feb 22, 2021
Warming Soil Means Stronger Microbe Networks
Soil warming leads to more complex, larger, and more connected networks of microbes in those soi [more...]
Jan 27, 2021
Labeling the Thale Cress Metabolites
New data pipeline identifies metabolites following heavy isotope labeling.
Aug 31, 2020
Novel Bacterial Clade Reveals Origin of Form I Rubisco
List all highlights (possible long download time)