U.S. Department of Energy Office of Biological and Environmental Research

BER Research Highlights


Uncertainty analysis in Integrated Assessment Provides New Insights into the Magnitude of the Climate Change Threat
Published: July 20, 2009
Posted: July 27, 2009

DOE-funded research conducted at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) indicates a 90% probability range of global surface warming of 3.5 ° C to 7.4°C with a median of 5.2°C. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various climate outcomes based on uncertainty in the physical/biological response of the climate system but the MIT model is the only one that includes detailed multi-nation treatment of uncertainty in projections of human emissions, including population, economic growth and technological change. The MIT study is one of the most comprehensive Integrated Assessment modeling efforts carried out on the potential for global warming in the absence of emissions mitigation. Importantly, it builds on new methods in uncertainty analysis centered on MITs Integrated Global Systems Model.

Reference: A. Sokolov, P. Stone, C. Forest, R. Prinn, M. Sarofim, M. Webster, S. Paltsev, C. Schlosser, D. Kicklighter, S. Dutkiewicz, J. Reilly, C. Wang, B. Felzer, J. Melillo, and H. Jacoby. Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters. Journal of Climate. Preliminary manuscript approved for Publication. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1.

Contact: Bob Vallario, SC 23.1 , (301) 903-5758
Topic Areas:

  • Research Area: Multisector Dynamics (formerly Integrated Assessment)

Division: SC-23.1 Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, BER

 

BER supports basic research and scientific user facilities to advance DOE missions in energy and environment. More about BER

Recent Highlights

Aug 24, 2019
New Approach for Studying How Microbes Influence Their Environment
A diverse group of scientists suggests a common framework and targeting of known microbial processes [more...]

Aug 08, 2019
Nutrient-Hungry Peatland Microbes Reduce Carbon Loss Under Warmer Conditions
Enzyme production in peatlands reduces carbon lost to respiration under future high temperatures. [more...]

Aug 05, 2019
Amazon Forest Response to CO2 Fertilization Dependent on Plant Phosphorus Acquisition
AmazonFACE Model Intercomparison. The Science Plant growth is dependent on the availabi [more...]

Jul 29, 2019
A Slippery Slope: Soil Carbon Destabilization
Carbon gain or loss depends on the balance between competing biological, chemical, and physical reac [more...]

Jul 15, 2019
Field Evaluation of Gas Analyzers for Measuring Ecosystem Fluxes
How gas analyzer type and correction method impact measured fluxes. The Science A side- [more...]

List all highlights (possible long download time)