Climate change under RCP8.5 in the 21st century will enhance tundra shrubification.
NGEE-Arctic Scientists from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) used an ecosystem model, ecosys, to mechanistically represent the processes controlling recent and 21st century changes in plant functional type (PFTs) across North American Arctic tundra. The productivity of deciduous and evergreen shrubs was modeled to increase across much of the tundra, particularly in Alaska and tundra-boreal ecotones. The increased canopy cover of shrubs reduced incoming shortwave radiation for low-lying plants, causing declines in net ecosystem productivity of graminoids and non-vascular plants.
This study mechanistically modeled and explained the driving factors that control shrubification and its future trajectory under RCP8.5 scenario. LBNL scientists highlighted the importance of capturing the basic processes of how Arctic PFTs compete for irradiance, water, and nutrients, which are key mechanisms of how plant functional types may change under future climates. Their modeling approach also highlights the need to understand and model differences in functional traits of Arctic PFTs. Short-term experiments may not capture decadal-scale changes in C cycling driven by plant compositional changes.
Many large-scale land surface models do not represent biological and physical processes important to predicting how future changes in climate and environment will drive PFT changes, and thus cannot mechanistically explain the dynamic factors that control these changes. The modeling approach we applied here is driven by PFT-specific functional traits important for predicting high-latitude vegetation competition under a changing climate (e.g., CO2 fixation kinetics, leaf optical properties, phenology, morphology, and root traits). Modeled differences in PFT functional traits determine the strategy of resource acquisition and allocation that drive growth, resource remobilization, and litterfall, and therefore each PFT’s dynamic competitive capacity under changing growing conditions. Deciduous and evergreen shrub productivity (i.e., shrubification) was modeled to increase over the 21st century across much of the tundra, particularly in Alaska and tundra-boreal ecotones.
BER PM Contacts
William J. Riley
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, firstname.lastname@example.org
This research was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231 as part of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) project.
Mekonnen, Z. A., W.J. Riley, and R. F. Grant. “Accelerated nutrient cycling and increased light competition will lead to 21st century shrub expansion in North American Arctic tundra.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 123(5), 1683-1701 (2018). [DOI:10.1029/2017JG004319]
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